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Paul Foster
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Paul Foster, a knowledgeable researcher has 21-years of professional experience in the capital markets, investments, trading, corporate finance, arbitrage, options and mergers and acquisitions.

Option Update: Under Armour volatility elevated into EPS, outlook

Under Armour (NYSE: UA) is recently up $1.49 to $31.72. UA is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on July 29. Wedbush Morgan says "Expect in line Q2 results; checks suggest brand continues to perform despite challenging retail environment."


UA August call option implied volatility is at 75, puts are at 86, above its 26-week average of 54 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement. UA put volatility is higher than call volatility because UA is difficult to borrow.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option Update: Telmex volatility flat into Q2 revenue decrease of 6.3%

Telmex (NYSE: TMX) said second quarter profit fell 13% after more customers switched to wireless service.

Goldman Sachs says: "Maintain Telmex Sell on 2Q08 sales drop + margin squeeze."

TMX August option implied volatility of 36 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) closed at $25.80 Tuesday.

MSFT is hosting an analyst day on July 24.

MSFT August option implied volatility of 28 is below its 26-week average of 30 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Cablevision volatility elevated into EPS & outlook

Cablevision (NYSE: CVC), an entertainment & communications company controlled by the Dolan family, closed at $21.65 Tuesday.

The Dolan family has made frequent attempts over the last four years to implement strategic alternatives at CVC.

CVC is expected to announce Q2 EPS on July 31.

CVC August option implied volatility of 47 is above its 26-week average of 40 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Costco volatility flat into lower EPS outlook on inflation

Costco (NASDAQ: COST) is recently trading at $66 in pre-open trading, below its close of $72.

COST said earnings for the fourth quarter are expected to be well below the consensus estimates because of a rise from inflation, particularly as to energy costs.

COST overall option implied volatility of 32 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option update: Assured Guaranty volatility spikes on possible debt downgrade

Assured Guaranty (NYSE: AGO) is recently down $8.77 to $9.95. Moody's said it placed AGO debt under review for possible downgrade. AGO has a triple-A-rated credit rating.

Wilbur Ross announced on Feb. 29 the agreement to invest $1 billion in AGO, a Bermuda-based holding company that provides credit enhancement products. AGO August option implied volatility of 195 is above its 26-week average of 69 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option Update: Wachovia August volatility collapses on updated financial strategy

Wachovia Corp. (NYSE: WB) is recently up $1.33 to $14.45. Wachnovia reported Q2 EPS loss of ($1.27) ex items verses consensus estimates of ($0.78). WB lowered its quarterly dividend to $.05. WB will take a $6.1 billion goodwill charge for Golden West. WB August option implied volatility of 94 is below a level of 141 from July 21 and above its 26-week average of 59 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (AMEX: XLF) is recently up $.30 to $21.05. XLF August option implied volatility of 50 is above its 26-week average of 37 according to Track Data.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option Update: AT&T & Verizon options active into EPS & outlook

AT&T (NYSE: T) closed at $31.83 Monday. T is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on July 23. T August option implied volatility of 36 is above its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Verizon (NYSE: VZ) is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on July 28. VZ announced second quarter wireless net customer additions of 1.5 million. At the end of the quarter VZ had 68.7 million customers. VZ August option implied volatility of 31 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Apple volatility elevated into lower outlook & Jobs' health

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is recently down $17.19 to $149.10 in pre-open trading.

AAPL expects Q4 EPS of $1.00 versus consensus of $1.24.

Deutsche Bank says: "Regarding Steve's health, mgmt said 'he has no plans to leave Apple and his health is a private matter'. While the topic is delicate, we believe the absence of a straightforward denial of health issues will increase speculation of worst case scenario."

AAPL August option implied volatility of 56 is above its 26-week average of 49 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Wachovia August volatility elevated at 141 into EPS

Wachovia (NYSE: WB) is recently up 68 cents to $13.65. WB is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on July 22. WB call option volume of 50,778 contracts compares to put volume of 61,557 contracts. WB August option implied volatility of 141 is above its 26-week average of 58 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Mid-afternoon equity option family volume leaders: Citigroup (NYSE: C), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Wachovia (NYSE: WB) according to Track Data.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: HSBC Holdings volatility at 32; shares up on report of China fund investment

HSBC Holdings (NYSE: HBC), a United Kingdom-based banking and financial services company, rallied on the Hong Kong stock exchange; following a report it held talks with China's sovereign wealth fund about a potential investment in the bank.

HBC is expected to report Q2 EPS in late July.

HBC August option implied volatility of 32 is near its 26-week average of 30 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Yahoo volatility at 77 into Icahn settlement

Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) is recently down 45 cents to $22 in pre-open trading.

YHOO announced it reached an agreement with Carl Icahn to settle their proxy content. Under the terms of the settlement agreement, Carl Icahn will be appointed to YHOO's board of directors. YHOO Q2 EPS are scheduled for July 22. YHOO annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for August 1st.

YHOO August option implied volatility of 77 is above its 26-week average of 45 according to Track Data, indicating larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Genentech volatility flat into Roche $43.7 billion offer

Genentech (NYSE: DNA) is recently trading at $93, above its close on Friday of $81.82.

Roche Holding AG offered to buy the rest of DNA for $89 in cash. Roche, the world's largest maker of cancer drugs, acquired a majority in DNA in 1990 and currently owns 55.9% of DNA. Goldman Sachs says: "We expect the independent directors to negotiate with Roche for a higher price."

DNA August option implied volatility of 31 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Apple and Caterpillar volatility up into earnings per share

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) recently down $5.80 to $166.04:


AAPL is scheduled to report Q3 EPS on July 21. AAPL call option volume of 140,446 contracts compared to put volume of 143,734 contracts. AAPL August option implied volatility of 54 was above its 26-week average of 49 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.


Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) recently down 73 cents to $71.10:

CAT iss scheduled to report Q2 on July 22. CAT August option implied volatility of 41 was above its 26-week average of 33, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Yahoo volatility at 79 into EPS, asset sale and share buyback speculation

Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) is recently down 31 cents to $22.13. YHOO Q2 EPS are scheduled for July 22. YHOO annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for August 1. Stifel Nicolaus says, "We are increasingly convinced that YHOO executive management is considering the sale of the company's portfolio of Asian Internet assets to unlock value and raise cash for a major repurchase program." YHOO August option implied volatility of 79 is above its 26-week average of 45 according to Track Data, indicating larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option Update: Bank of America volatility elevated into EPS & outlook

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) closed at $26.50 Thursday.

BAC is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on July 21. Keefe Bruyette and Woods says: "BAC brings risky CountryWide assets on Balance sheet, lowering estimates."

BAC August call option implied volatility went out at 64, puts at 97, above its 26-week average of 45 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Financial Select Sector-XLF overall volatility at 46; 26-week average is 37.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

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DJIA+29.8811,632.38
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S&P 500+5.191,282.19

Last updated: July 23, 2008: 09:33 PM

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