Lowe's (NYSE:LOW) is expected to report Q1 EPS before the open on May 19. LOW June option implied volatility of 35 is below its 26-week average of 39 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.
Home Depot (NYSE:HD) is expected to report Q1 before the market open on May 20. HD June option implied volatility of 32 is below its 26-week average of 36 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
After hitting a one-year high of $33.19 in June, the stock hit a one-year low of $19.94 in January. This morning, LOW opened at $25.22. So far today the stock has hit a low of $24.51 and a high of $25.24. As of 11:45, LOW is trading at $24.83, down 31 cents(-1.2%). The chart for LOW looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $27.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in five weeks as long as LOW is below $27.50 at June expiration. Lowe's would have to rise by more than 10% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
LOW hasn't been above $27.50 since October and has shown resistance around $26 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 5/19) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance LOW might find at its 200 day moving average, which is currently around $26 and falling. Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investor's Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in LOW.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the homebuilders won't quit, and that's making the early-cycle plays work.
Have we really bottomed? The stubborn lack of decline in the homebuilders, coupled with the better-than-expected retail sales, the strong transports, and the conclusion of a deal like Clear Channel (NYSE: CCU) (Cramer's Take), has created an environment where you are hard-pressed, if you rely on stocks as forecasters, to ignore the possibility of a bottom.
I watch the HGX like a hawk, the homebuilding aggregation, and it simply won't come down. That's despite the awful numbers, the covenant violations (Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF) (Cramer's Take)) the bad loans, the lack of mortgage money, the insistence of a down payment and an abysmal spring traffic season.
So, why are people buying the group that signaled the downturn? I think it comes down to price. If you force the homebuilders to sell, as Toll (NYSE: TOL) (Cramer's Take) did this quarter, taking no gains on homes, you clean up inventory. If you clean up inventory, which is what happened in western Florida, you stabilize pricing. When you stabilize pricing, you bring out buyers. It is a virtuous circle.
This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.
There are many contrasts between The Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Lowe's (NYSE: LOW), both of which sell a broad range of tools, fixtures, fittings, garden supplies, and construction materials to do-it-your selfers and professional contractors alike. Home Depot is the original big-box category killer of a hardware store that displaced many a mom-and-pop shop, as well as its predecessors, like Builders Emporium. Lowe's, the new kid on the block has been growing like mad with Home Depot's business in it's cross-hairs.
Both companies have been suffering mightily in the face of the housing slump and the crushing financial markets. Eventually, recession or not, both companies will see their revenues improve as the economy works through it's nightmarish problems.
UBS initiated Interpublic Group (NYSE: IPG) and Omnicom Group (NYSE:OMC) with Buy ratings and an $11 target and $62 target, respectively. The firm views valuation as attractive.
Credit Suisse upgraded Aetna (NYSE: AET) from "underperform" to "neutral," according toBriefing.com. The news service also reports that JP Morgan upgraded Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) to "overweight" from "neutral."
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Hottest Stocks of 2008 (so far) Some surprising names have performed well this year--and they have room to run. They include Allied Irish Banks, Home Depot, Lowe's, American Express, Time Warner Cable, Vulcan Materials and Verizon. The Hottest Stocks This Year - Morningstar Stock Strategist
Worst Places for Homeowner's Debt It's no secret that homeowners with subprime mortgages have taken a beating. Next up: those who have combined their mortgages with home equity loans, second loans or both. These combinations spell especially bad news for homeowners with the worst city being Sacramento. Other cities with high homeowner debt include San Diego, Washington DC and Colorado Springs. Worst Cities For Homeowner Debt - Forbes.com
Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL) is the largest specialty retailer of hardwood flooring in the United States. Product lines include prefinished domestic and exotic hardwoods, engineered hardwoods, unfinished hardwoods, bamboo, cork, and laminates. Altogether, the firm offers 150 varieties of flooring. These are sold from 124 stores in 44 states, via catalogs, over the Internet and through a Virginia call center. Competitors include Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Lowe's Companies (NYSE: LOW).
The firm surprised the Street last week, when it reported Q4 EPS of 12 cents and revenues of $105.5 million. Analysts had been expecting ten cents and $102.2 million. In discussing the solid numbers, the CEO pointed to growth-oriented infrastructure investments and a higher-margin merchandise assortment. Management also guided FY08 EPS to 70-78 cents (73 cent consensus) and FY08 revenues to $475-$490 million ($483.27M consensus).
It is alarming to me that the same people who screw up the economy (or stand by watching) are the ones that are now promoting the remedies. They have proven without a shadow of a doubt that this is not their strong suit. The proposed economic stimulus package has bi-partisan support and calls for an estimated $156 billion of tax rebates ranging from $500 to $1,000 (+ $300 for each child) that might show up in May.
If we are going to add on to our already humungous joke of national debt, than I want to invest this capital in something that will bring a higher return on invested capital (ROIC) than the paltry one time mad money. That expenditure should be for national infrastructure projects like roadways, bridges, tunnels, and waterways.
We have all heard about the poor condition of our national infrastructure and the hundreds of billions of dollars of repair work and replacement that is desperately needed.
This alternative would bring visible results that every single person in the country would benefit from and improved linkages always stimulate economic growth. Road improvements even reduce fuel consumption by shortening routes and reducing friction both strategically and physically.
After home improvement retailer Lowe's Cos. (NYSE: LOW) posted a 33.4% decline in its fourth-quarter profit yesterday, it was its main competitor Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD)'s turn to step up to the plate and impress Wall Street. As Trey Thoelcke discussed, the world's largest home improvement store chain managed to top estimates only once in the past six quarters, and current earnings numbers were not too encouraging either.
Home Depot reported that its quarterly profit slipped more than 27% to $671 million as the slumping U.S. housing market brought the first annual decline for the company's sales. The retailer posted earnings of 40 cents a share, falling short of analyst estimates for a profit of 43 cents a share.
Looking at revenue, Home Depot saw an increase of 1.5% to $17.66 billion, up from $17.4 billion a year earlier, as the largest U.S. home-improvement retailer benefited from an extra week during the quarter. Excluding that, sales would have dropped 4.7%. Analysts forecast revenues of $18 billion for the quarter, according to Thomson Financial.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says it could be part of a strategy to pounce when the economy sagged. Lowe's can take the pain; Home Depot can't.
Maybe Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) (Cramer's Take) sees what we saw this morning: A Home Depot (NYSE: HD) (Cramer's Take) that's a shadow of its former self. Maybe LOW is pulling a Verizon (NYSE: VZ) (Cramer's Take) and just going out to destroy the competition with lower rates and short-term hits to performance.
Yesterday I was torn between what really drove up the price of Lowe's: the January low point with February showing some improvement, or an overall belief that the early cycle is starting and the economy has bottomed courtesy the Fed rate cuts. The reaction last night to Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) (Cramer's Take) was similar: terrible earnings but hope that things will get better. It's is now well above where it hit its low and it is hard for me to believe that it could go back there.
You couldn't tell which theory was winning out for either Lowe's or Nordstrom because I am sure you had buyers of both plus the ubiquitous short-sellers who lurk everywhere and are prone to cover on a moment's worth of positive price action (as we saw in Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) (Cramer's Take) yesterday before a new round of estimate cuts, courtesy special purpose vehicles that some alleged cognoscenti will claim they saw coming).
The nation's second biggest home improvement retailer reported that its quarterly profit slipped 33% to $408 million, or 28 cents a share, hurt by the weak U.S. housing market. These numbers were down $613 million or 40 cents per share reported in the same period a year ago. Despite the 33% decline, the company was still able to beat analyst estimates of 25 cents a share in the quarter.
The company showed a drop in its fourth-quarter revenue to $10.38 billion, down from $10.41 billion a year earlier. Analysts forecast revenue of $10.85 billion in the quarter, according to Thomson Financial. The drop in revenue came as the retailer had to face a difficult consumer environment brought by the U.S. housing market slowdown and credit crisis.
Cracking CEO Facial Codes An expert at reading facial cues shows how expressions of Nike exec, Gates, Trump, etc., might offer insights into their companies. Nike's Phil Knight, Microsoft's Bill Gates and the Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffett have a high percentage of positive expressions while Oracle's Larry Ellison was on the other extreme with 100% negative expressions. Both Donald Trump and Rupert Murdoch also were predominately negative. It's written all over their faces - USATODAY.com
Sizing Up the New Wireless Plans After unleashing the industry's first unlimited calling plans last week, the four major U.S. wireless carriers have given consumers plenty to talk about. Unlimited calling sounds attractive, but these plans aren't for most subscribers yet. Here's a breakdown of the unlimited calling plans offered by the major wireless carriers. Unlimited Wireless Plans Prove to Be Pricey for Most | SmartMoney.com
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Monday, May 19
Lowe's
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It is alarming to me that the same people who screw up the economy (or stand by watching) are the ones that are now promoting the remedies. They have proven without a shadow of a doubt that this is not their strong suit. The proposed 
After home improvement retailer 
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